The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global temperatures may reach new records before 2030. The agency said there is an 86 per cent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will become the hottest ever recorded.
The report shows that global temperatures will likely stay near record levels during the next five years. Scientists expect the warming trend to continue across many regions.
The WMO released the findings with Britain’s Met Office. The report combined forecasts from 13 international climate institutes.
Scientists said all Eleven (11) hottest years on record happened after 2015. The agency believes another record year could arrive before 2031.
Leon Hermanson led the WMO climate update. He said a possible El Niño event in late 2026 could increase temperatures further during 2027.
(El Niño) is a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. It changes rainfall, pressure, and wind systems worldwide.
The previous El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year recorded. It also pushed 2024 to the highest level ever measured.
The report estimated annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will remain 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.
Scientists also projected a 91 per cent chance that global temperatures will temporarily rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius during at least one year.
The WMO added that there is a 75 per cent chance the five-year average will exceed the same level.
The 2015 Paris climate agreement aimed to limit long-term warming below 2 degrees Celsius. Countries also agreed to pursue efforts below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Experts explained that temporary increases do not mean the Paris target has failed. Climate goals measure warming over decades, not single years.
The report stated that exceeding 2 degrees Celsius remains highly unlikely during the next five years. Scientists placed that risk below one per cent.
Arctic warming may continue faster than the global average. Winter temperatures there could rise 2.8 degrees Celsius above recent averages.
The report also predicted wetter conditions in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia, and the Sahel region. Dry conditions may continue across the Amazon area.
Western Europe recently faced intense heat under a heat dome. Britain and France recorded unusually high May temperatures.
The WMO warned that rising global temperatures could increase risks for economies, societies, and sustainable development. The findings present a serious challenge for climate policy worldwide.
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